By Robert Mwale and Bob Hang’andu Cheepa

Earlier this year, the Zambia Statistics Agency (ZamStats) announced that Zambia would rebase its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), replacing the current 2010 benchmark year with 2023. The decision follows the release of the preliminary results of the Economic Establishment Census conducted in 2025, which point to an economy that looks markedly different from the one that existed fifteen years ago, one in which services are playing an increasingly important role.

Existing GDP estimates tell a similar story of structural change. Information and Communication activities, for example, increased their contribution to GDP from just 1.6% in 2010 to 10.5% in 2023, reflecting the growing importance of digital technologies and services in the economy. Financial services have also expanded. The rapid growth of mobile money, fintech and digital payments suggests that the nature and scale of financial intermediation today look very different from those captured in 2010. Our GDP estimates must be rebased to reflect this reality.  

GDP measures the total value of all goods and services produced within an economy over a given period. To estimate this accurately, ZamStats uses a base year, essentially a reference point that determines the relative weights assigned to different sectors according to their importance in the economy at the time. Zambia’s current GDP estimates are anchored in the structure of the economy in 2010. The challenge is that the sectors driving the economy today are not necessarily the same as those that drove it fifteen years ago.

This is not the first time Zambia has faced this challenge. The last rebasing exercise in 2014 updated the base year from 1994 to 2010 to better capture the growing importance of sectors such as wholesale and retail trade, and ICT that had outgrown the 1994 benchmark. Recognising that economies evolve over time, the United Nations’ System of National Accounts recommends that countries update their base year every five years. By this standard, Zambia’s rebasing exercise is not only timely but long overdue.

What exactly is GDP rebasing? GDP Rebasing is the process of replacing an outdated base year used to estimate a country’s economic output with a more recent one that better reflects the current structure of the economy. In practice, this means updating the relative weights assigned to different sectors and incorporating industries and activities that have emerged or grown in importance over time. Since the last rebasing in 2014, the economy has undergone significant transformation. Mobile money, fintech and digital services have become part of everyday life. The Economic Establishment Census has identified more than 485,000 businesses and 750,000 workers that were previously outside official statistics. GDP rebasing is therefore necessary to ensure that our economic statistics reflect the Zambia of today and not the Zambia of 2010.

So what changes now? The answer is simple: the estimate of the size of the economy will change. When Zambia last rebased its GDP in 2014, the estimated size of the economy increased by more than 25%, rising from US$13.3 billion to US$16.7 billion. But this did not mean that new businesses suddenly appeared overnight, that households had more money in their pockets, or that the cost of living became easier. What changed was not the economy itself, but our measurement of it. Rebasing changes the measurement of the size of the economy; it does not immediately change the lived realities of everyday life.

What could change after rebasing? Although rebasing does not create new economic activity, it can change how we understand the economy and interpret key economic indicators. If GDP increases, as it did following the 2014 rebasing exercise, while debt levels remain unchanged, the debt-to-GDP ratio automatically falls. The economy may also appear more diversified, revealing sectors and activities that were previously underrepresented in official statistics. This can help the Government better target policy interventions, strengthen domestic resource mobilisation efforts and identify opportunities for formalisation and productivity growth. Investors, too, stand to benefit from a clearer picture of where growth and opportunities are emerging, helping to guide investment decisions.

What does not change? It is equally important to understand what GDP rebasing does not do. It does not create jobs overnight, generate new wealth or immediately improve living standards. Poverty rates, employment levels and other social indicators are therefore unlikely to change simply because the economy has been measured differently. Nor does rebasing mean that Zambia suddenly produces more goods and services than it did the day before. Rather, it means that existing economic activity is being measured more accurately and comprehensively.

Why does this matter? Good policy begins with good data. Governments rely on GDP statistics to design economic policy; investors use them to identify opportunities; researchers use them to evaluate policy choices; and development partners use them to guide support and investment decisions. GDP rebasing should therefore be understood for what it is: an internationally accepted statistical exercise designed to ensure that countries measure today’s economies using today’s realities rather than yesterday’s assumptions.

For Zambia, rebasing offers a clearer picture of the economy’s true structure and where growth opportunities lie. Better data leads to better analysis, better policy decisions and more targeted interventions to support sustainable and inclusive growth. Ultimately, GDP rebasing does not change the economy itself; it improves our understanding of it.